538 is the number of electors in the electoral college. Now Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan need to do the same thing! [538 49], On September 12, 2011, Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month. Candidates need 270 votes to win the presidency. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. Simply put: It's the total number of electoral votes in the U.S. electoral college. Well, it's here [citing his June 6 article], in an article that contains 4,807 words and 18 footnotes. Politics, while discussing their impact on the Indian Politics? I've seen the phrase used before. ", "How We Designed The Look Of Our 2020 Forecast", "America's Hottest Pollster Gives His Final Verdict as US Elections Reach Climax", "FiveThirtyEight Combines Polls, Reporting and Baseball", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&oldid=1014109362, Articles with dead external links from February 2016, CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown, Articles with dead external links from September 2018, Articles with permanently dead external links, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, sports blog, In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of, June 2018: "The Atlas of Redistricting" was named "News App of the Year" by the Data Journalism Awards sponsored by the, This page was last edited on 25 March 2021, at 06:46. Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid? [538 6], In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com: if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or LOESS. Each elector represents one electoral vote, and a candidate needs to gain a majority of the votes - 270 or more - to win the presidency. That's not what's up now. 2. Silver also commented on the fact that the 538 ratings had contributed to Markos Moulitsas's decision to end Daily Kos's use of Research 2000 as its pollster. Akin to "never missed an opportunity, to miss an opportunity". If I were a Member of Congress and had the choice between (A) controlling national tides, and (B) controlling my state’s redistricting, then I’m going to choose B every time — and that’s in O’Neill’s column. People may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. This is ABC news/Washington Post which carries 538's highest rank for pollster accuracy. [62] Sanders went on to win 23 states in the primaries. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. There's been a lot of political commotion online caused by Pennsylvania "rescinding" its votes for Donald Trump, with many conservative public figures and talking heads pointing to Real Clear Politics' projection of the election that places Joe Biden at 259 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 214. The striking results are very bad news for Trump and his supporters. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Their forecast showed Democrats winning Senate races in North Carolina and Maine, which Republicans ended up winning. [24], One unique aspect of the site is Silver's efforts to rank pollsters by accuracy, weight their polls accordingly, and then supplement those polls with his own electoral projections based on demographics and prior voting patterns. Not to make it about politics, but… Well, it seems we are going to make it about politics. [71] In consequence, Clinton's probabilities to win the Electoral College were not improving. [538 50], While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness[538 51][538 52][44] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,[538 53] the B.C.S. As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others. r/politics Rules. It sounds grandiose, triumphant, but meaning just the opposite makes it so painful. [49][50] Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.[51][52]. Seriously, just look at this smile below. [22] ABC News Live streaming channel was launched on Roku in May 2019. [78], The forecast favored the actual winner of 48 states, the District of Columbia, and four of the five congressional districts awarding electoral votes, only missing Florida, North Carolina, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. My preference is with 538, but I refer to both. [63], The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election,[67] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one". That's not what's up now.". [538 7], In April 2018, it was announced that FiveThirtyEight would be transferred to ABC News from ESPN, Inc., majority owned by The Walt Disney Company. 538 is transparent and clear about weighting polling organizations based on historical quality, and adjusting for historical bias. The candidate who receives a majority of electoral votes (270) wins the Presidency. Wizard, indeed". I wasn't saying that Silver did include the poll. Why other writers played only a limited role in FiveThirtyEight/NYT was explained in February 2011 in an article in. election. "[63], FiveThirtyEight's predictions for each state primary, both for the Republican and the Democratic party nominations, were based on statistical analysis, not on the analyst's opinions. The number from each state is based on population and is equal to the number of members of Congress the state has in the House and Senate, meaning … Babylonian Captivity, the forced detention of Jews in Babylonia following the latter’s conquest of the kingdom of Judah in 598/7 and 587/6 BCE. Come 2020, all these factors are still going to be in play. The lead story by Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization.... We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. There are 538 electors. The site is titled Five Thirty Eight and referred to as simply 538. Not that I think that phrasing is good for this particular case. Members. Applicable either to the incompetent or the unfortunate, in this case, the latter. © Copyright 2021 Distractify. Daniel 7:25 (1260 days/years) 538 A.D. - 1798 A.D. " Three important issues are present which point to 538 AD : 1) Justinian's decree, found in the Code of Justinian, that the bishop of Rome be the supreme head over all the churches, definer of doctrine and corrector of heretics. The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would not reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. [26] In Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection. This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, for example. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate". [38][39] Under terms of the agreement, Silver would also write monthly articles for the print version of both the newspaper and the Sunday magazine. [538 67] The 538 model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It often means Bracket", "Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks' Upside", "Calling Foul on N.B.A. [21], FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. There are 538 electors in total. [538 40]. Fivey Fox is colored orange, white and beige with comically sized black glasses and has white colored sock-like paws. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator". He argued that by giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls in his favor ... they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals". Details. To see what is really going on. Number 538 is associated with a popular website or a blog that deals with opinion analysis by using polls. [76], Jasmine Mithani, visual journalist with FiveThirtyEight, said in an interview when asked about the complaints of new mascot said "I think the biggest complaint about Fivey Fox is that some people find it infantilizing, but that wasn’t our intention" and that the motivation for including the character was to help make the forecast more of a "a teaching tool". [538 66], On the morning of November 6, Election Day, Silver's model gave President Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the electoral votes. Suffragettes Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton drafted the amendment in 1878, though it was not ratified for 42 years. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. [3][4] Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll". FiveThirtyEight, American political and statistical analysis blog. Not that I think that phrasing is good for this particular case. As Mark Blumenthal wrote in National Journal, "Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. [538 68] By March 2016, this staff had nearly doubled to 37 listed on the masthead, and 7 listed as contributors. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. ", https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/694974558831525888/photo/1, "Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate, In One Chart", "The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost", "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump", "Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. According to his calculations, the risk was 21 percent, meaning that Obama’s odds to win the state were roughly 4-to-1. Mr. Sides is also the founder of the blog The Monkey Cage,[43] which was named the 2010 Blog of the Year by The Week magazine". Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. But we don't really see politics as how the site is going to grow". Bill Burr Is Hosting 'SNL' Tonight, Which Should Be, Um, Interesting. A lobbyist’s efficacy primarily depends on their ability to gain access to decision-makers. [41] However, of the seven listed writers, only three of them had published on 538/New York Times by late December 2010: Silver, Renard Sexton and Hale Stewart. The number from each state is based on population and is equal to the number of members of Congress the state has in the House and Senate, meaning … Critics scoffed. [13], On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers. »Victor Papanek: The Politics of Design« is organized into four sections offering an in-depth look at Papanek’s life and work. 83 votes, 12 comments. Just like the presidential race between Al Gore and George W. Bush, the contest between Trump and Biden has appeared close to some, and the former hasn't conceded that he's lost the election. But there has been a lot of conversation around other states that will perform recounts: Georgia will officially recount all of the votes by hand. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. [538 37] Silver examined the pitfalls of the forecasting process,[538 37] while Sexton discussed the final government agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. History. Fivey Fox is the mascot of FiveThirtyEight. Answer: In 1909, the Morley-Minto Reforms were initiated under which (1) … 7.5m. Issue 538. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. The United States Electoral College is a name used to describe the official 538 Presidential electors who come together every four years during the presidential election to give their official votes for President and Vice President of the United States..